Futures studies as an innovation tool

Fortunately, futures studies offer us a new opportunity to unravel the uncertainties of the future and turn them into tangible opportunities that guide organizations toward more prosperous and desirable futures.

At dot., we have long integrated this science into our design processes, working with various organizations using our own methodology—from foresight research to designing possible future scenarios, and subsequently, materializing new value propositions, strategies or narratives that help us move closer to a desirable future.

↗ Joseph Voros - Futures Cone: A Generic Foresight Process Framework.

Recently, we ventured into the fast-moving consumer goods and retail sector alongside Eroski to envision the households shopping experience in 2032. Within this framework, the Innovation Department at Eroski (EKINN) and dot. set two ambitious challenges:

In the fast-moving consumer goods sector, the relationship with consumer interests, needs, and behaviors is much more direct and evident. Today's consumers exhibit increasingly diverse and evolving lifestyles, continuously redefining how we consume. Therefore, it was particularly important to understand new family structures and household models, emerging tasks and time distributions, as well as the new aspirations of society and the social frameworks that support them.

To uncover new insights and envision scenarios that are not overshadowed by current evidence or trends, it is essential to delve into the profound transformations within society (which do not occur overnight) and establish a time frame of at least ten years.

Looking back over the same period, we can see that the lifestyle, technologies, and consumption habits we have today would have seemed equally astonishing or implausible back then. Who could have imagined in 2012 (when Amazon entered Spain in 2011) that nearly 70% of the national population would be shopping online via their mobile devices?

Thus, the model is based on three components. First, through a systemic observation exercise, we identify future signals and trends. This phase not only helps us understand and anticipate potential changes in the future of retail, but also uncovers societal shifts that extend beyond any single company or industry.

Based on these signals, we begin to develop hypotheses by exploring various vectors, allowing us to create possible future scenarios that encourage us to think beyond conventional frameworks and consider the possible, probable, and desirable.

Thirdly, we construct a long-term strategic vision by selecting and combining these scenarios, all of which can coexist simultaneously. This enables us to use future scenarios as a tool for addressing strategic decisions and activating new value propositions, products, services and experiences that ensure our client's relevance and address the future needs of the sector.

The potential of futures studies as a strategic and innovation tool is immense, enabling organizations that have traditionally adopted a reactive stance toward current challenges to become proactive through enhanced market intelligence. This approach empowers them to positively influence the future: Can we create the future we wish to live in or the one that is most beneficial for our business?

This is a discipline that has been applied for years, primarily in the development of political and even military strategies. It has also been explored through a creative lens in science fiction cinema, crafting future scenarios (often dystopian) in films like Blade Runner and Mad Max. However, the rapid pace of technological advancement and its ongoing democratization have enabled futures design to be applied in other sectors, particularly in the corporate world linked to innovation. Increasingly, companies are interested in integrating these methodologies as a means of analyzing their long-term prospects and creating room for adaptation. Navigating toward the future is a complex journey that requires the courage to manage uncertainty.